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My Caps Collapse Theory for 2011
Caps fans have these theories to explain the misfortunes for each of the team’s 36 years, though for most of the first decade we didn’t have to worry about collapses in the playoffs- it happened in the regular season. IMHO, this time around there are three reasons for the latest epic playoff fail.
#1) Statistical Inevitability: They were too hot at the end of the regular season. Heading into the playoffs, in their last 20 games, they were 16-3-1. Add the 1st round series win in five games over the New York Rangers and they were 20-4-1 as they began play against Tampa. In the middle of the season a 4-game swoon after a hot streak is not that odd; it’s almost inevitable. In the playoffs, it ends your season.
#2) Subliminally- They Set the Wrong Goal: They were too fixated on getting past the 1st round in order to erase last year’s epic fail against Montreal when they blew a 3-1, 1st round series lead after posting the best record in hockey. They played a series of very tough, low-scoring games against the Rangers capping their 1st round success with a perfectly-played game at home. There was relief and way too much satisfaction for managing to get into the 2nd round. Oh, they all say they’re playing for the Stanley Cup, but psychologically, the Caps were really playing just to get past the 1st round and as heavy favorites going into the series with Tampa- they figured it was going to be a piece of cake. Please note the lack of euphoric celebration in the Lightening locker room last night. Those guys are all business, know they have one more series ahead of them to get to the finals and are not sitting back, all pleased with themselves like we were.
#3) Bruce Boudreau does cute television commercials, but in the end, gets outcoached when it really matters. Tampa threw the Caps off with their 3-1-1 defense and Boudreau never really figured out an adjustment to handle all those defensive players just hanging back near their own goal. Then when they got ahead, instead of staying with the conservative, defensive approach, Tampa threw the Caps off again, switching to an aggressive, offensive-oriented game. Line changes screwed the Caps repeatedly, it seems. Some of that is lack of execution, but some of it was just plain bad timing. I suppose in an ideal world, you have someone like Bruce Boudreau get you through the regular season and then you bring in a really good strategist to coach you through the playoffs. But that’s not how it’s done, so even though he has a great regular season record as a coach, he’s not been able to lead the team past the 2nd round—ever.
They should not blow up this team. There are so many really good, young players- they have the potential to be a dominating franchise for years to come. I hope they keep this great mix of youth and veterans; with a good strategist guiding them in the playoffs- they’ll do ok sometime in the next couple of years.
We should be grateful we have one of the best teams in hockey even if they are perpetual playoff underachievers. And there were some great moments this season. I will never forget that crazy come-from-behind victory over the Rangers at Madison Square Garden with the fans chanting “Can you hear us.” That’s the memory I think I’ll hang on to.
Oh and one more thing about next year: Keep your expectations nice and low. Let them surprise us for a change instead of endlessly disappoint us.
Enjoy the golf, boys. We still love ya’.
Stanley Cup Dreams
When a sports season ends badly, fans famously utter the cliché about waiting until next year. It can feel like a really long wait. The road to the Stanley Cup begins anew tonight as the Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers. Will it be heartbreak or redemption for last season’s sad and humiliating 1st round defeat by Montreal when the Caps blew a 3-1 series lead.
This is not last year. The Caps were the best team in hockey in 2010; an absolute offensive scoring juggernaut. They were cocky, full of themselves and missing a couple of ingredients—defense and grit. They ran into hot goalkeeping and lost their confidence and had nothing to fall back on.
This time around, they don’t have half the offense. But they do play tough defense and it’s no big deal for them to win low-scoring games. Last year, the Caps got hot in February winning 14 straight. This year, they’re hot right now. They are 16-3-1 in their last 20 games.
The New York Rangers have a spotty offense and terrific goal-tending but the Caps will never take them for granted. On December 12th, the Rangers crushed Washington, in New York, 7-0. It was Washington’s worst defeat in five years. It marked their 6th straight loss. It was the moment the Caps fully understood they needed to change their character. That loss has helped make the Caps who they are today- a scrappy, gritty, tough, defensive-oriented team that thinks nothing of scoring just a couple of goals a game- they’ll shut you down and hold you to one. There is no shortage of incentive for the Caps against these Rangers.
There’s nothing sure in sports, of course. But even if they do lose to New York in the 1st round, they will have done all the right things to give them the best chance possible. Pucks take funny bounces; the NHL playoffs are notorious for upsets. So the only thing you can control- is your philosophy and your work ethic. They have the right philosophy and they work their tails off. It’s all you can ask for. It’s how they have, once again, become the #1 seed in the NHL’s Eastern Conference.
Here’s what some others think of the Caps chances in this opening series against the Rangers:
Caps in 6
Our friends at Discovermoosejaw.com in South-central Saskatchewan, Canada call it Caps in six. This wasn’t just one guy from Moosejaw, Saskatchewan- this was a whole panel of famous Moosejawnians; the morning radio hosts of Country 100, the Director of Hockey Operations for the Moose Jaw Warriors, the Head Coach of the Moosejaw Generals and the Head Coach of the Moose Jaw Miller Express.
Rangers in ?????
Edmond Dantes of the Bleacherreport.com says if the Caps don’t start goalie, Michal Neuvirth, they’re toast. He bases his pick on the Caps-Rangers head-to-head contests this season, painfully outlined above.
Caps in 4
Over in Pennsylvania, way northwest of Philadelphia in the Lehigh Valley, Kevin Amerman of the morningcall.com puts it this way as he predicts a Caps sweep:
Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist is very good, but not great enough on a team with little identity to stop Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble and company.
Caps in 7
SB Nation/Denver’s Matthew Muzia sees a nail-biter but totally buys into the change in the Cap’s philosophy. He points out a Ranger upset would not that be that huge considering those 7-0 and 6-0 Caps losses to New York earlier in the season.
Rangers in 5
The Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont does not think the Caps can overcome Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Dupont thinks we’re going to get all rattled and frustrated.
Caps Are the Betting Public’s #2 Pick
Over at Thespread.com this is how fans are thinking about the Stanley Cup playoffs in general. This is folks talking with their money:
San Jose Sharks 76%
Caps 69%
Boston 62%
Detroit 57%
Caps in 5
Dave Gross with the Ottowa Citizen makes the most sense of all these guys:
Capitals win if: They slam the foot on the gas and keep it there. This should be a motivated team considering the frustrations of the past two playoffs. Boudreau pointed out the team’s better suited now to low-scoring games after continuing to win with fewer goals (for and against) this past season.
Go Red!
Unlocking the Keys to the Stanley Cup
Apologies to my readers who don’t give a hoot about sports or particularly, hockey, but as I live one block from the Verizon Center, it was nice for a change to hear some blaring horns on the street the other night as the Washington Capitals got an amazing overtime goal from the ‘Great 8,’ Alex Ovechkin, and defeated the New York Rangers 2-1.
I feel very, very good about the Cap’s chances in the NHL playoffs this year for several reasons:
1) They do not have the best record in hockey
2) They are not leading their division
3) They are not doing well at home lately
4) They are no longer the goal-scoring machine they once were
Seems counter-intuitive I know, but as any hockey fan will tell you, the playoffs have absolutely nothing to do with the 82 games that are played during the regular season. The playoffs are a whole new deal and we learned this in spades last year when the Caps posted the best record in the sport and were ousted in the 1st round by what were then considered the lowly Montreal Canadiens.
I wrote a bitter and sad post that made the following points:
Home Ice Does Not Matter
There is no advantage to playing at home. In fact, as three of the four division winners in the Eastern Conference can attest- home ice is actually a disadvantage.
Having the Best Record in the Regular Season Does Not Matter
All it gets you is home-ice advantage. See above. And it guarantees you will play a dangerous team that has nothing to lose.
The 82 Regular Season Games You Play Mean Absolutely Nothing
Other than to qualify for the post-season, play mediocre hockey and just barely squeak into the playoffs. This will give you both the away-ice advantage and tremendously reduced expectations.
You Don’t Need Such a High-flying Offense
It masks your defensive liabilities. If one hot goalie can shut down your entire offensive juggernaut in the playoffs it doesn’t really matter how many goals you scored in the regular season.
Well amazingly enough….the Caps are playing just well enough to be comfortably in the playoffs…but without any of the expectations of last year’s team. This year, it’s the Caps that will be the dangerous team with nothing to lose. We no longer have the imposing offense whose regular season success masked our defensive weaknesses. This year, the Caps have crafted a different image of themselves, concentrating on defense instead of offense.
The transition has not been easy, but they’re getting there and by playoff time should just about have this new approach down pat.
You have to love a team that actually learns from experience. This season, it seems the Caps have redesigned themselves, not for the regular season, but for the season that counts- the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Go Red.
P.S. I’m begging you…Ted Leonsis…please purchase the Washington Redskins.
Caps Fans Feel Some Vindication
Maybe it wasn’t that we were bad or that we choked or that we’re cursed. It seems nobody can beat the Montreal Canadiens.
Having dispatched our hated enemy, the defending NHL champion Pittsburgh Penguins 5-2 in Game 7 to move into the Eastern Conference Finals Wednesday night, the Habs appear to be a team of fate and fortune. Ha! See that? We lost to a team of destiny!
Feels better now. And Sydney Crosby had only one goal in the series. So much for the Ovechkin/Crosby debate. Nobody cares anymore because they’re both out of the playoffs.
To my Pittsburgh Penguin fan-friends: We know your pain. It sucks and you can’t beleve it and how could it have happened and there’s a certain emptiness. As I have discovered, it will be somewhat comforting if Montreal goes on to the finals. I would suggest rooting for them.
Nobody beats destiny.
When Your Sports Team Embarrasses You
I didn’t spend a second on the ice, I lost no teeth, my personal Power Play is working just fine, thank you. Nevertheless, I am a little red-faced today over the infamous, notorious and historic Washington Capitals collapse last night.
There is a tremendous irony here that leads to a few suggestions for next year’s Washington hockey team. This would not be such a horrific embarrassment for the entire city or for Washington area sports or specifically for the Caps, if they had not done so well in the regular season; if they had not fashioned one of the best regular-season records in the history of the sport.
So noting the trends from the first round of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs, here are my suggestions for next year.
Home Ice Does Not Matter
There is no advantage to playing at home. In fact, as three of the four division winners in the Eastern Conference can attest- home ice is actually a disadvantage.
Having the Best Record in the Regular Season Does Not Matter
All it gets you is home-ice advantage. See above. And it guarantees you will play a dangerous team that has nothing to lose.
The 82 Regular Season Games You Play Mean Absolutely Nothing
Other than to qualify for the post-season, play mediocre hockey and just barely squeek into the playoffs. This will give you both the away-ice advantage and tremendously reduced expectations.
You Don’t Need Such a High-flying Offense
It masks your defensive liabilities. If one hot goalie can shut down your entire offensive juggernaut in the playoffs it doesn’t really matter how many goals you scored in the regular season.
Lights, Sirens and Fights
If you really like the sounds of the siren going off and the little flashing red
light- activate them during intermission between periods. To make up for fewer goals
get into more fights. This will make the games more entertaining and emotional.
Get a Really Hot Goalie
And you don’t have to pick him up until a week before the playoffs. Remember- you don’t want to win a whole lot of regular season games. The real season is from April through June. The rest of it is all window dressing.
I think that about covers it. In an effort to win fewer regular season games, you can probably shed a lot of high-priced stars who, as it turns out, didn’t show up for the playoffs anyway.
In their place, get guys who block shots and goons who beat the crap out of people. That will also require less emphasis on the Power Play and more on Penalty Killing. But that’s cool because it’s a lot easier to slap a puck away to the other end of the rink than to fit it through a tiny slit and past a goaltender and into a fairly narrow net.
Garcia Media Life 
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