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Observations on the Big GOP Debate Night
Just my two cents on some of the major participants and what it all means for the 2016 election:
Ohio Governor John Kasich:
This guy has got to be Hillary Clinton’s biggest nightmare. Comfortable in his conservative beliefs but tolerant of those who differ; compassionate in his views about helping those in need. Very strong moment for many moderates and independents, I think, when asked about his opposition to same-sex marriage and he said that, hey, he’s an old fashioned guy but how would he respond if one of his kids came out? He’d love them. Good answer!
Unapologetic about increasing Medicare subsidies in Ohio, he sounded a compassionate conservative theme I haven’t heard from a Republican in a long, long time. He also has a smart political team. The timing of his Presidential announcement gave him the precise buzz and bump he needed to get into the big 9 pm debate. One of his major slogans right now to GOP voters is- “No Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio. Ever.”
He also fills the “regular guy” role that was supposed to be Scott Walker’s specialty. I honestly think Hillary Clinton beats every single GOP contender on that stage- except John Kasich. The math gets really difficult for Dems without Ohio.
Brilliant move by Kasich to say Trump is touching a nerve with many and not belittling him. Not only does he get Trump’s supporters at a later date but if Kasich gets the nomination, Trump will remember the kindness and maybe doesn’t launch the 3rd party bid.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio:
Pretty solid performance. Really liked his take on the immigration issue when he pointed out the real problem no one talks about- the horrible, inane government bureaucracy that is so inept it turns immigrants who want to be law-abiding into criminals when they give up after waiting for years and years and end up sneaking in. Rubio’s youth and energy could be a real contrast to Hillary the Grandmother. And Dems like to win Florida too, and he wouldn’t be making that an easy task. Not sure he currently has the Presidential demeanor. I see Kasich as a Commander in Chief way before I picture Rubio. But if the country really wants change- he’s an attractive, next generation alternative.
Donald Trump and Roger Ailes:
The Fox News President, I’m guessing, did his best to end Donald Trump’s bid for the Republican nomination and probably succeeded with the first two questions that were asked in the debate. Knowing full well what Trump’s response would be, the first question asked of “all” the candidates was to raise their hand if they would be willing to bolt the GOP and run as a 3rd party candidate. Trump obliged, proving definitively, that he really does not give a rat’s ass what anybody thinks of him. He is not a panderer.
Then Megyn Kelly asked about his insulting tweets about women. Then Chris Wallace asked about his four Casino bankruptcies.
Was he diminished? I think for some Republicans, the ones who care about the party, the luster has come off of the Trump infatuation. But for many conservatives and for politically pissed-off people who don’t particularly care about the Republican party- he maintains and even gains a little.
Unless the post-debate Fox news panel with 21 Fox-selected participants reflects reality. Fourteen of them went into the debate liking Trump only 3 remained loyal by the end of it. They called him mean and selfish and bombastic. And then later, a lot of Fox News analysts also were highly critical of Trump’s performance. This is not subtle. The Trump people are picking up on the conspiracy vibe.
Trump organization Executive VP and special counsel, Michael Cohen tweets the following:
A total setup by @FrankLuntz and #FOXNEWSDEBATE to try to lower #Trump2016 high poll numbers. American people will not fall for your tricks.
Are we on the verge of a Trump–Ailes war? Because right now, it’s looking like the Donald walked into a gigantic trap.
Wisconsin Governor, Scott Walker
He was sharp and well spoken. He’s clearly crammed his little heart out on foreign policy. He’s a guy with a family and a Harley. He does “regular guy” very well. He has certainly been consistently dissed and underestimated and just wipes out his opponents in every election he’s ever been in. He’ll end up being a force to be reckoned with. But I don’t think Kasich plays “regular guy.” He actually is one and is a much more experienced political hand with a superior political operation.
Former Florida Governor, Jeb Bush
Meh. No flubs. Selling himself as the voice of reason. Dealt smartly with Trump and didn’t get into the mud in any way. Stuck to his talking points on his accomplishments as Governor. I don’t feel it for the third Bush.
New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie
He was pretty solid and articulate but kind of transparent in regard to his strategy of goading one of the other candidates into a brawl and so it was Rand Paul he chose to target. I thought Paul held his own in the fiery debate between the two on the issue of national security versus privacy rights. Christie came off tough alright. Unfortunately for him, that mantle’s been taken by Donald Trump. In the battle of the bullies, Christie gets Trumped.
Kentucky Senator, Ron Paul
His brand has been deeply tarnished over the months but I thought he put on a decent debate performance. His libertarian views were pretty clear and consistent and he resisted pandering.
Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee
What ever happened to the happy warrior who tells jokes and plays bass with rock n’ roll bands? He seems so angry these days. “Get off my lawn” kind of angry. He stayed away from oven analogies- a wise choice. He had a staged joke at the end criticizing a candidate that sounded like it was going to be Trump and it ended up being Hillary. The Fox News hosts thought this was really funny.
Dr. Ben Carson
No surprises. Didn’t get much air time and stood his ground about it. Fairly funny staged joke at the end saying that as a neurosurgeon there are things he’s done no one else on the stage has- like separate Siamese twins and operate on people with a half a brain which he compared to the half-brains in Washington.
Texas Senator, Ted Cruz
Got seriously short-changed on air time and answered every single question precisely as you would expect him to- extreme hard right. It struck me that as the champion college debater he was, Cruz would be killer in a more traditional and structured debate setting. But this was not that. This is the age of Trump and politics as reality television. This is the age of 17 candidates and not enough time for any of them, really.
Former HP CEO, Carly Fiorina
Voted Most Likely to Succeed in Leaving the Kid’s Table and Moving Up to the Adult Table for the next debate. It seems to be very important to the Republican party that there be a woman who criticizes Hillary Clinton non-stop and either the rules will be changed or the good press she got will put her into the top 10, but she WILL be in the next debate with the top folks. She’s also looking very Vice Presidential to me. Kasich-Fiorina.
You got some work ahead of you, Hil.
Eastwooding: Gigantic Oops
One of hundreds of “Eastwooding” images in which various dogs, cats, and humans interact with empty chairs
I’m trying to think who I would most like not to be in the Romney campaign today. The guy who told Clint Eastwood: “Nah, go ahead, wing it.” Or the campaign aid who cornered Eastwood in the green room. “I know this sounds nuts, Clint, but what if we put you on stage with an empty chair?”
Most human beings with a computer and an internet connection are aware by now that beloved actor, Clint Eastwood, laid a bit of an egg on the closing night of the Republican convention with a sometimes incoherent, rambling, unscripted monologue-type-thing with an empty chair as a prop that contained an invisible Barack Obama.
Certainly a unique event in the annals of political convention history, it may well go down as one of the greatest blunders in modern political stagecraft. In his introduction to Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio delivered a strong speech that added greatly to his rising-star status. Romney gave what many say was the best speech he’d ever delivered.
But all anybody is talking about is the back-fire of Eastwood’s bizarre appearance. The explosion in social media has been massive and mocking. It is truly the stuff of cultural legend, likely to become as lasting an image as Ted Kennedy turning his back on Jimmy Carter in 1980. An unfortunate iconic image.
The convention planners must have been completely horrified. The event lasted just over 14 minutes, but they had to have started getting worried about 4 minutes in. The crowd seemed to like it but the staging of conventions is not meant for the few thousand in attendance. It’s the television, radio, and digital audience that matters, as well as the consensus media coverage that follows. On those screens and speakers, it came off awkward and weird and it created a firestorm of instant, universal opinion- from CBS News to the New York Daily News to Entertainment Tonight- the Mother of All Distractions- obscuring the nominee’s moment in the spotlight.
Even worse, Eastwood’s appearance supplanted a moving, well-produced film biography of the nominee that ended up not being shown by the television networks to the prime-time audience. Those films are important. Many credit the one produced for Bill Clinton at the 1992 Democratic convention, “A Place Called Hope,” as an important factor in the eventual turn-around that elected him to the White House.
Mitt Romney deserved better than the events that transpired on closing night. Somebody screwed up big time.
Democrats Way Angrier With Hilary Rosen than Republicans
I don’t doubt a lot of the G.O.P. anger at the Democratic strategist’s comments that Ann Romney “has never worked a day in her life,” is totally genuine. But it would also be political malpractice if they didn’t take tactical advantage of the gift handed them by Hilary Rosen.
With the President enjoying an 18% advantage with women voters, Democrats were beside themselves today at Rosen’s clumsy words which she continued to double and triple and quadruple down on as night turned to morning. In an article on Huffington Post she further accused Mitt Romney of hiding behind his wife’s skirt. Within a couple of hours, that particular sentence had been magically scrubbed clean.
Apoplectic Democrats including the President, the Vice President, the First Lady, the Obama team’s campaign manager, his top advisors, and for all we know, Bo, the First Family’s dog, were falling all over themselves distancing themselves as far as possible from Rosen.
Republicans are now trying to paint her as a close advisor, an Obama intimate- the President’s brain. She is, in fact, the ultimate Washington insider. The PR firm she works for advises the Democratic National Committee and she gets invited to White House state dinners, but that’s about the extent of it. Certainly, whatever minor political influence she may have had is pretty much now dust in the wind.
The point Rosen was trying to make is that Mitt Romney’s efforts to close the gender gap by saying his wife is a key advisor on the economic plight facing the nation’s women provides a narrow view because Ann Romney has had distinct economic advantages through her life.
But as a breast cancer survivor, a victim of Multiple Sclerosis, and as a woman who raised five boys, Ann Romney is also an incredibly sympathetic figure who most political observers agree connects with voters way more effectively than her husband. So on top of that, Rosen’s perceived additional attack on “stay-at-home” moms, was possibly not the smartest move for a political “strategist.” One wonders, while she was at it, why Rosen didn’t go on and assault apple pie as well.
As the Ozzie Guillen of politics (the Miami Marlins Manager who set off a firestorm by telling Time magazine he loved Fidel Castro), Ms. Rosen is not very popular right now in Democratic circles. I think she’s been invited to her last White House dinner and if I were her, I would not be looking for an invitation to the Democratic convention either.
Is this a lasting issue? I think so. The Romney’s will shortly be giving an interview to ABC’s Dianne Sawyer. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to hear Mitt Romney make reference to the matter in his convention speech. Ann Romney has been made a heroine and her value to the campaign, in general, is now enormous.
As more than a few conservative bloggers have pointed out today, who would have thought it would be a Democratic “strategist” who would finally unite the Republican Party behind their presumed nominee?
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