Garcia Media Life

All presidential candidates are tested to the breaking point. Bill Clinton endured adultery accusations just days before the New Hampshire primary. Barack Obama, seemingly cruising after an Iowa victory four years ago, found himself losing to Hillary Clinton the very next week in New Hampshire. Both recovered.

Mitt Romney has had a nightmare of a week heading into Saturday’s South Carolina primary. At Monday’s debate, in addition to the little stuff, like confusing the big game he was hunting in Montana, he also gave one of the world’s longest and meandering and confused responses ever about the release of his tax returns. Maybe in April. If that’s the tradition. He was going to release them eventually sometime. It was quite the exhibit of red-faced tap-dancing. Meantime, Newt Gingrich played the conservative and vocal audience in the debate hall like a Stradivarius.

Then Romney hinted his tax return just might reveal he paid a fairly low 15% tax rate and then basically declared that his $350,000 in annual speaking fees was chump change. Which, of course, it is, compared to his estimated $25 million annual income from investments, but still enough to put him in the top 1% of American wage earners.

He then wakes up Thursday morning to find out he may actually have lost the Iowa caucus to Rick Santorum- trailing in the final but incomplete vote count officially released today. Not sure it’ll help Santorum- but it takes the luster off the Romney camp’s brag about being the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate in history to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. He is no longer undefeated.

Meantime, recent polling finds a large erosion in Romney’s South Carolina and national leads. As I write, Rich Perry is getting out of the race and apparently headed toward a Gingrich endorsement.

The only bright spot for Romney is anticipating the possible damage that might be done tonight when ABC News releases an interview conducted with Newt’s ex-wife Marianne on Nightline. Careful what you wish for. A “lame-stream” media interview with a surging conservative candidate’s ex-wife 48 hours before the voting- seems to me to be the perfect storm for a voter backlash against the establishment media- and a potential boon for Newt Gingrich if he plays it right.

Mitt Romney is still formidable. He still has a lot of money and the best and deepest campaign organization. He still has a large lead in the Florida primary set for Tuesday, January 31st. History has shown that politicians in a seeming free fall can correct and conquer.

I’m not in the business of advising presidential candidates on tactics, but Jon Stewart offered Mitt some advice on the Daily Show last night that might be his ultimate answer to surviving this critical juncture in the campaign. That advice: stop pretending not to be rich. Embrace your wealth. Embrace your success story. Lose the pretenses about being middle class and once having worried about getting a “pink slip.” Nobody believes that stuff.

Americans strive to be rich no matter what their circumstance or background. They can respect that. What they pick up on fast is phoniness and a lack of authenticity. He ought to release his tax returns, tell people he did everything lawfully available to him to save on his tax bill, and proclaim himself rich and proud of it. “You know what?” the New Romney might say, “I earned everything I have. Maybe it’s time America had a President who knows how to create a little bit of wealth.”

Why, it’s so crazy, it just might work.

Polls are one thing; votes, even caucus votes, are another.  The time is rapidly approaching that the first set of winners and losers in the Republican presidential race will be officially decided in Iowa. 

The polls (Public Policy Polling) show Newt up by just a single point over Ron Paul with three weeks to go. For all the press about Newt Gingrich’s sudden inevitability, the up-to-the-minute trends as registered by notoriously unreliable polling in the state is that Newt is on the decline. A barrage of negative advertising against him primarily from the Ron Paul camp appears to be doing damage.  Gingrich’s negatives are going up while his Tea Party support has started eroding quickly.  Meantime, more and more evangelical leaders in the state are endorsing Michele Bachmann who is creeping up on Mitt Romney who is currently third. 

How about this scenario for Iowa?  Ron Paul edges out Newt Gingrich.  Michelle Bachmann finishes third, ahead of Romney who comes in a disappointing 4^th.  

Now we come to the New Hampshire primary, where Mitt Romney with home field advantage, edges out Gingrich who is nearly caught by a surging Ron Paul.   Totally plausible scenario that leaves today’s front-runner- Newt Gingrich- winless in the first two important political contests of the season.  

Newt’s poll numbers in the next contests in South Carolina and Florida are strong.  Romney is well ahead in Nevada.  As the early contests conclude, we could very well have a three-way donnybrook verging on a 4-way traffic jam if Michelle Bachmann ends up the recipient of coalesced evangelical and Tea Party support.

This thing could go on awhile as the GOP has restructered its process to include fewer winner-take-all states.  Even 4th place finishers get a few delegates in state after state.  It even leaves open the possibility of the wet dream of all political junkies in America-the brokered convention. 

None of the Republican candidates arrive in Tampa with a majority.  All of them are bruised and battered after months of vicious attacks on each other.  None of them have a lead on Obama in head-to-head general election polls.  Movers and shakers in the G.O.P. establishment meet in a smoke-filled room in a non-smoking hotel to hammer out a solution.

To the shock of the nation and stunning the Obama campaign team- it all becomes a Florida nightmare for the Dems.  The Tampa convention, by acclamation, suddenly nominates former Florida Governor, Jeb Bush who crazily enough, chooses Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his VP.  Months of opposition research and ready-to-go TV ads go down the tubes as shocked Obama operatives read their internal polling.  The Florida path is gone. Bush/Rubio is nailing 40% of the Hispanic vote. The men are gone.  The Catholics are gone.

But come January of 2013, it’s Barack Obama taking his second oath of office, saved by the 3^rd and 4^th party campaigns of Ron Paul and Donald Trump who take just enough votes from Bush and Rubio to put Obama over the top. He reaches his electoral majority Wednesday morning, November 7^th as Hawaii comes through at 6am, ET.

I know, I know.  Reads like a bad novel.  But in a campaign in which reality has already been stranger than fiction….

 

 

“I am the least racist person there is.” Donald Trump today on Fox News Channel’s morning show. Admirably clever sentence, but honestly, at this point, I highly recommend some media training might be in order.

And it might go something like this:

Media consultant: So Mr. Trump, I understand people have been unfairly labeling you as a racist.

Donald Trump: It’s the damndest thing. I don’t understand it. I have a great relationship with the blacks, as a matter of fact….

Media consultant: W-w-ait, one second, sir. Did, did, you just say “the blacks?” You haven’t actually said that in public have you?

Donald Trump: Sure did. Went on a radio show a couple of weeks ago-and it’s true, I’ve always had a great relationship with the blacks.

Media consultant: I see. I would suggest a slightly different turn of phrase, perhaps something more like, “I’ve always had a great relationship with the black community.”

Donald Trump: Hey, that’s good. The blacks do kind of have their own little community. Yeah, I like that.

Media consultant: Are there other things you’ve said in the media on the subject of race relations?

Donald Trump: Oh yeah. I was on with Fox and Friends this morning. I have my own little corner of the show. I told them the truth too. Told them I was the least racist person there is.

Media consultant: You used the word, “least,” did you? May I recommend an outright denial? Something like: “I am NOT racist.” “Least” racist sort of implies everyone in America is a racist and that of all the racists; you are the most tolerant of them. It’s kind of a mixed message.

Donald Trump: Huh.

Media consultant: What else did you say on this Fox and Friends show?

Donald Trump: Here’s the beauty part. Complete total proof I am the least racist person, ever. Randal Pinkett won, as you know, on The Apprentice a little while ago, a couple of years ago. And Randall’s been outstanding in every way. So I am the least racist person.

Media consultant: You said that? And Mr. Pinkett is an African-American?

Donald Trump: Oh yeah. He’s one of the blacks I know.

Media consultant: I see. What do you think started this whole racism thing?

Donald Trump: It started about the same time I asked the President of the United States to provide a birth certificate to prove he’s one of us- you know, American.

Media consultant: Why would you do that? Didn’t the White House already post his birth certificate some three years ago?

Donald Trump: That was a short-form certificate of live birth. Not the same thing as a long-form certificate. But I am very proud of myself. I made the President produce his birth certificate…the real one.

Media consultant: So the birth certificate matter is over for you?

Donald Trump: Well, yeah. But now there’s the matter of the college records I want released. I hear the President was a lousy student and no one really knows how he got into Harvard.

Media consultant: Mr. Trump, at this point let me offer some historical background. There was a time in this country when people of color, had to offer certain proof of things that others didn’t. Like that they were smart enough to do things like- vote. Sometimes they were made to take literacy tests. Others, to this day- people who look a little different than the rest of us, are asked for certain papers to prove they’re actually U.S. citizens. There’s a certain historical sensitivity about minority individuals having to provide extra proof about things.

Donald Trump: Damn. These are great ideas.

Media consultant: Some may take it wrongly or out of context, that you’re implying the President got academic opportunities other didn’t, just because he’s African-American.

Donald Trump: Yeah, well….in my family, the way it’s done is you, like, buy a college a library or a gym or something like that. Two, two and half a million dollars in a “charitable contribution” can go a long way, you know. It’s not fair people can get into colleges without making extra donations, if you know what I mean.

Media consultant: Well is that it?

Donald Trump: Yeah, well, there’s the basketball thing.

Media consultant: The basketball thing?

Donald Trump: Yeah, I said that with people really hurting in this economy, while they’re paying four dollars a gallon for gas, maybe the President ought to spend a little less time on the basketball court.

Media consultant: You didn’t.

Donald Trump: And on my Celebrity Apprentice show last night….I don’t know how this happened…but I ended up firing two black people, Star Jones and LaToya Jackson. And a third one quit, that woman with Housewives of Atlanta, or whatever it’s called. But there’s still one left!

Media consultant: One what?

Donald Trump: One of the blacks. One of the blacks is left- the little rapper guy.

Media consultant: Mr. Trump, it really has been nice meeting you. At this point, I’m going to turn you over to someone else in our PR firm- someone who specializes in damage control….you know, containing issues that could be publicly embarrassing.

Donald Trump: Damage control? Did I damage something? What? Did I embarrass somebody?

Notes and disclaimers: Though many of the Donald Trump quotes are actual responses to questions he’s given over the past month or so, some of these are purely fictional. He has not come out in support of literacy tests for voting purposes and I have no idea how Trump got into the Wharton school, though his son-in-law was admitted to an Ivy League university shortly after a $2.5 million donation from his father. It’s outlined in detail in the book, The Price of Admission , by Wall Street Journal education writer, Daniel Golden.

He was not being sarcastic. Turns out he was being sarcastic. Rush Limbaugh opened his program today by saying, “Thank God for President Obama.” Politico has now updated its original take and now says El Rushbo was in full mockery mode.

He went on to say:

“Ladies and gentlemen, we need to open the program today by congratulating President Obama. President Obama has done something extremely effective, and when he does, this needs to be pointed out….

President Obama, perhaps the only qualified member in the room to deal with this, insisted on the Special Forces. No one else thought of that…not a single intelligence adviser, not a single national security adviser, not a single military adviser came up with the idea of using SEAL Team 6 or any Special Forces.”

That turned out to be part of the mockery as well.

Former New York City Mayor and vociferous Obama critic, Rudi Guiliani, actually was sincerely gracious today:

“I feel a great deal of satisfaction that justice has been done, and I admire the courage of the president to make a decision like this because if something had gone wrong everyone would be blaming him and I admire the courage and professionalism of our military intelligence officials who carried this out and this is a great victory against terror. Nobody can minimize it. He was a symbol more than anything else right now but…symbols are really important.”

Others have been less than gracious, congratulating the military but failing to mention the role the President played in approving the surgical strike.

According to Politico.com:

Over the past seven weeks, Obama had chaired numerous National Security Council meetings on the topic, including ones on March 14, March 29, April 12, April 19 and April 28.

“In the lead up to this operation, the President convened at least 9 meetings with his national security Principals,” a senior administration official e-mailed reporters. “Principals met formally an additional five times themselves; and their Deputies met 7 times. This was in addition to countless briefings on the subject during the President’s intelligence briefings; and frequent consultations between the [White House National Security Council], CIA, [Defense Department] and Joint Staff. The President was actively involved in reviewing all facets of the operation.”

This was a total team effort; from the Situation Room in the White House to the incredible heroism and courage of the U.S. Special forces who despite losing a helicopter and going on with the mission anyway not knowing if they had a way out of there, pulled it off anyway.

This also speaks to the merits of continuity between Presidential administrations. The groundwork for this was laid by George W. Bush. And he deserves credit as well. There will always be debate about the tactics that were used and whether Iraq should have ever have been part of the equation. Those debates are for another day.

For now: justice served.

Donald Trump says it took him all of a half hour to find his own birth certificate. Maybe he should have taken the less than 15 minutes it took for me to find Barack Obama’s.

Politically, I understand why Mr. Trump is putting his celebrity stamp on the “birther” cause; appearing on one TV talk show after another as if it was 2008 and he just discovered a huge conspiracy.  Factually, it’s disingenuous. This has been settled for more than three years now.

We’ll leave aside the point that The Donald’s birth certificate comes nowhere near the standards being demanded of the President’s proof of birth. Trump does not provide a legally legitimate birth certificate and perhaps that’s why it took him less than an hour to get it. He has a copy that was sent to him by his hospital- it has no seal, it is not even an official copy- and it is simply not a legal document in any way, shape or form.

Here, however, is Barack Obama’s legal birth certificate. And you can link to it yourself here.

In a rush to release the documentation in 2008 to counter the rumors about a missing certificate, the Obama campaign staff intially redacted the certificate number as explained by then spokesman, Shauna Daly: “[We] couldn’t get someone on the phone in Hawaii to tell us whether the number represented some secret information, and we erred on the side of blacking it out. Since then we’ve found out it’s pretty irrelevant for the outside world.” The actual certificate on file in Hawaii has the certficate number and a picture of it is below.

Here is a picture of Factcheck.org’s, Joe Miller, actually holding the document in his own hands:

This is the signature stamp from the official with the state of Hawaii who authenticated in 2007 that this was a legal copy of the birth certificate:

This is a picture of the raised seal on the back of the birth certificate that further authenticates it:

This is the legal certificate number on the document that also authenticates it:

This is a copy of the birth announcement published in the Honolulu Advertiser newspaper on Sunday, August 13, 1961:

All of the above items are what the Department of State says is needed as proof of American citizenship. Case closed.

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I once had to come up with my legal birth certificate in the process of settling my mother’s estate about ten years ago. I had a copy of it, mind you, but that is not a legal document. I had to go through the state of New York, provide notarized proof of my legal identity, and then wait for about three weeks. They give you an authenticated copy because the actual original lives in a vault somewhere.

So it came in the mail and I’ll never forget it because of the postmark on the envelope: September 11, 2001. That’s right. The New York City Health Department, on the day it was beginning to handle hundreds and hundreds of death certificates for the victims of 9/11, had somehow found the time to send me the legal copy of the document authenticating my birth.

There is one thing that deeply disturbs me about Barack Obama’s birth certificate. It indicates that for the first time in my life- a President of the United States is younger than me.

Now, that hurts.

Update:  Donald Trump has located his legal birth certificate and his red-faced staff is now distributing it everywhere.

I used to attend the White House Correspondents Association Dinner just about every year so I had some mixed emotions this year about, well- not caring anymore. I stayed home instead and made some kick-ass short ribs.

This dinner has morphed considerably through the years and from what I have read, seemed to have reached an entirely new phase last Saturday night. Officially gone now are the days when any schmuck in a tux or a schmuckette in a nice dress could simply walk into one of the dozens of news organization-sponsored pre-parties at the Washington Hilton. Now you need tickets to the pre-parties. Probably a good thing; it was getting to be an honest-to-goodness fire hazard.

I understand the roped-off area at the lower entrance to the Hilton that used to accommodate screaming fans was done away with. The pre and post party celebrations and cocktails extend for four days in what is now becoming WHCA week.

And the celebrity lists continue to grow. There have always been politically conscious Hollywood celebrities- but now all of them are making the coast-to-coast trip in their private jets. It’s the place to be seen. Ryan Seacrest, the Jonas brothers, Dennis Quaid, Ashley Judd, Queen Latifa, Michael Douglass, Justin Bieber, Jon Bon Jovi.

But the true mark of how Hollywood this dinner has become is the celebrity B-listers who have begun showing up. These are the celebrities that celebrity magazines tell us are celebrities but that we did not know were celebrities. Who ARE these people?

Gabourey Sidibe- People Magazine table
Tom Colicchio – People Magazine table
Mariska Hargitay- NBC Table
Ali Larter- Fox News table
Zach Galifianakis- Was rumored to have attended

Origins

Lore has it that everything changed for good back in the 1980’s when a journalist got inspired and invited Fawn Hall to the dinner; the attractive Oliver North aide who had just testified on Capitol Hill in the Iran-Contra scandal. Soon media organizations started competing with each other for the most scandalous guests and then the biggest celebrity guests, until the event finally became the Academy Awards-East.

Along the way, the Gridiron dinner pretty much died and the other big dinner which actually used to be at least as prestigious- the Radio Television Correspondents dinner- is now an after-thought.

Things change. The first fence was not installed at the White House until around 1900 when Teddy Roosevelt was President. And even then it was only about a foot high. Regular people used to actually picnic on the White House grounds. Now, of course, if you manage to get on the North Lawn with a picnic basket, you’ll be shot and killed.

So the White House Correspondent dinners I remember with the one-foot high fence around them are gone; really gone, gone.

There are reportedly members of the White House Press corps who look at this annual and growing celebrity invasion with a sense of alarm and are beginning to seriously wonder if the thing has gotten completely out of control. It certainly has a life of its own.

I think it’s here to stay. This is a celebrity-based culture and our President is a celebrity and the White House reporters who cover him are celebrities and Washington and Hollywood are now breeding and this is the baby that has been born.

Short Ribs

So while others drank and ogled and laughed at comedy delivered by Barack Obama and Jay Leno but written by ghost-writers; as people in tuxedos and formal dresses schemed to crash this after-party or that after-party- I cooked my first short ribs ever. They were awesome! I couldn’t believe I actually pulled that off. After roasting them slightly, you just let them sit in a a couple of cups of water or red wine and let them simmer slowly- like for an hour and a half.

The leftovers lasted right until Monday night when I finally got to You Tube and watched Obama and Leno tell their jokes. They were alright. But nowhere near as succulent as those short ribs.